In-Depth Ethical Analysis of the COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout for Migrant Workers in the Gulf Countries.

During the initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout, supplies were scarce, necessitating rationing. Gulf countries, hosting millions of migrant workers, prioritized nationals over migrants for vaccination. As it turned out, many migrant workers found themselves waiting behind nationals to get vaccinated for COVID-19. Here, we discuss the public health ethical concerns surrounding this approach and call for fair and inclusive vaccine allocation policies. First, we examine global justice through the lens of statism, where distributive justice applies only to sovereign state members, and cosmopolitanism, advocating equal justice distribution for all humans. We propose a cooperativist perspective, suggesting that new justice obligations can arise between people beyond national ties. In cases of mutually beneficial cooperation, such as migrant workers contributing to a nation's economy, equal concern for all parties is required. Second, the principle of reciprocity further supports this stance, as migrants significantly contribute to host countries' societies and economies. Additional ethical principles-equity, utilitarianism, solidarity, and nondiscrimination-are essentially violated when excluding non-nationals in vaccine distribution. Finally, we argue that prioritizing nationals over migrants is not only ethically indefensible, but it also fails to ensure full protection for nationals and hampers efforts to curb COVID-19 community spread.

Early-stage predictors of deterioration among 3145 nonsevere SARS-CoV-2-infected people community-isolated in Wuhan, China: A combination of machine learning algorithms and competing risk survival analyses.

OBJECTIVE: To determine which early-stage variables best predicted the deterioration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among community-isolated people infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and to test the performance of prediction using only inexpensive-to-measure variables. METHODS: Medical records of 3145 people isolated in two Fangcang shelter hospitals (large-scale community isolation centers) from February to March 2020 were accessed. Two complementary methods-machine learning algorithms and competing risk survival analyses-were used to test potential predictors, including age, gender, severity upon admission, symptoms (general symptoms, respiratory symptoms, and gastrointestinal symptoms), computed tomography (CT) signs, and comorbid chronic diseases. All variables were measured upon (or shortly after) admission. The outcome was deterioration versus recovery of COVID-19. RESULTS: More than a quarter of the 3145 people did not present any symptoms, while one-third ended isolation due to deterioration. Machine learning models identified moderate severity upon admission, old age, and CT ground-glass opacity as the most important predictors of deterioration. Removing CT signs did not degrade the performance of models. Competing risk models identified age ≥ 35 years, male gender, moderate severity upon admission, cough, expectoration, CT patchy opacity, CT consolidation, comorbid diabetes, and comorbid cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases as significant predictors of deterioration, while a stuffy or runny nose as a predictor of recovery. CONCLUSIONS: Early-stage prediction of COVID-19 deterioration can be made with inexpensive-to-measure variables, such as demographic characteristics, severity upon admission, observable symptoms, and self-reported comorbid diseases, among asymptomatic people and mildly to moderately symptomatic patients.

COVID-19 Mortality and Economic Losses: The Role of Policies and Structural Conditions

The response of governments to the COVID-19 outbreak was foremost oriented to two objectives: saving lives and limiting economic losses. However, the effectiveness and success factors of interventions were unknown ex-ante. This study aims to shed light on the drivers of countries' performances during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We measure performances by excess mortality and GDP growth adjusted for additional fiscal stimulus. We conduct an empirical analysis in two stages: first, using hierarchical clustering, we partition countries based on their similarity in health and economic outcomes. Second, we identify the key drivers of outcomes in each country cluster by regression analysis, which include linear, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and logit models. We argue that differences in countries' performances can be traced back both to policy responses to COVID-19 and structural conditions, the latter being immutable over the pandemic. Three relevant structural conditions emerge from the results: trade reliance on services, corruption, and the size of the vulnerable population (elderly, low-income, smoking, or cardiovascular-failing). Policies such as large-scale open public testing and additional fiscal stimulus in non-health could help reduce excess mortality, which might lead to lower economic losses.

On the Transition of Social Interaction from In-Person to Online: Predicting Changes in Social Media Usage of College Students during the COVID-19 Pandemic based on Pre-COVID-19 On-Campus Colocation.

Pandemics significantly impact human daily life. People throughout the world adhere to safety protocols (e.g., social distancing and self-quarantining). As a result, they willingly keep distance from workplace, friends and even family. In such circumstances, in-person social interactions may be substituted with virtual ones via online channels, such as, Instagram and Snapchat. To get insights into this phenomenon, we study a group of undergraduate students before and after the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we track N=102 undergraduate students on a small college campus prior to the pandemic using mobile sensing from phones and assign semantic labels to each location they visit on campus where they study, socialize and live. By leveraging their colocation network at these various semantically labeled places on campus, we find that colocations at certain places that possibly proxy higher in-person social interactions (e.g., dormitories, gyms and Greek houses) show significant predictive capability in identifying the individuals' change in social media usage during the pandemic period. We show that we can predict student's change in social media usage during COVID-19 with an F1 score of 0.73 purely from the in-person colocation data generated prior to the pandemic.

Expanding the Reach of Research: Quantitative Evaluation of a Web-Based Approach for Remote Recruitment of People Who Hear Voices.

BACKGROUND: Similar to other populations with highly stigmatized medical or psychiatric conditions, people who hear voices (ie, experience auditory verbal hallucinations [AVH]) are often difficult to identify and reach for research. Technology-assisted remote research strategies reduce barriers to research recruitment; however, few studies have reported on the efficiency and effectiveness of these approaches. OBJECTIVE: This study introduces and evaluates the efficacy of technology-assisted remote research designed for people who experience AVH. METHODS: Our group developed an integrated, automated and human complementary web-based recruitment and enrollment apparatus that incorporated Google Ads, web-based screening, identification verification, hybrid automation, and interaction with live staff. We examined the efficacy of that apparatus by examining the number of web-based advertisement impressions (ie, number of times the web-based advertisement was viewed); clicks on that advertisement; engagement with web-based research materials; and the extent to which it succeeded in representing a broad sample of individuals with AVH, assessed through the self-reported AVH symptom severity and demographic representativeness (relative to the US population) of the sample recruited. RESULTS: Over an 18-month period, our Google Ads advertisement was viewed 872,496 times and clicked on 11,183 times. A total amount of US $4429.25 was spent on Google Ads, resulting in 772 individuals who experience AVH providing consent to participate in an entirely remote research study (US $0.40 per click on the advertisement and US $5.73 per consented participant) after verifying their phone number, passing a competency screening questionnaire, and providing consent. These participants reported high levels of AVH frequency (666/756, 88.1% daily or more), distress (689/755, 91.3%), and functional interference (697/755, 92.4%). They also represented a broad sample of diversity that mirrored the US population demographics. Approximately one-third (264/756, 34.9%) of the participants had never received treatment for their AVH and, therefore, were unlikely to be identified via traditional clinic-based research recruitment strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Web-based procedures allow for time saving, cost-efficient, and representative recruitment of individuals with AVH and can serve as a model for future studies focusing on hard-to-reach populations.

Mental Health and Behavior of College Students During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Longitudinal Mobile Smartphone and Ecological Momentary Assessment Study, Part II.

BACKGROUND: Since late 2019, the lives of people across the globe have been disrupted by COVID-19. Millions of people have become infected with the disease, while billions of people have been continually asked or required by local and national governments to change their behavioral patterns. Previous research on the COVID-19 pandemic suggests that it is associated with large-scale behavioral and mental health changes; however, few studies have been able to track these changes with frequent, near real-time sampling or compare these changes to previous years of data for the same individuals. OBJECTIVE: By combining mobile phone sensing and self-reported mental health data in a cohort of college-aged students enrolled in a longitudinal study, we seek to understand the behavioral and mental health impacts associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, measured by interest across the United States in the search terms coronavirus and COVID fatigue. METHODS: Behaviors such as the number of locations visited, distance traveled, duration of phone use, number of phone unlocks, sleep duration, and sedentary time were measured using the StudentLife mobile smartphone sensing app. Depression and anxiety were assessed using weekly self-reported ecological momentary assessments, including the Patient Health Questionnaire-4. The participants were 217 undergraduate students. Differences in behaviors and self-reported mental health collected during the Spring 2020 term, as compared to previous terms in the same cohort, were modeled using mixed linear models. RESULTS: Linear mixed models demonstrated differences in phone use, sleep, sedentary time and number of locations visited associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. In further models, these behaviors were strongly associated with increased interest in COVID fatigue. When mental health metrics (eg, depression and anxiety) were added to the previous measures (week of term, number of locations visited, phone use, sedentary time), both anxiety and depression (P<.001) were significantly associated with interest in COVID fatigue. Notably, these behavioral and mental health changes are consistent with those observed around the initial implementation of COVID-19 lockdowns in the spring of 2020. CONCLUSIONS: In the initial lockdown phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, people spent more time on their phones, were more sedentary, visited fewer locations, and exhibited increased symptoms of anxiety and depression. As the pandemic persisted through the spring, people continued to exhibit very similar changes in both mental health and behaviors. Although these large-scale shifts in mental health and behaviors are unsurprising, understanding them is critical in disrupting the negative consequences to mental health during the ongoing pandemic.

Mental Health and Behavior of College Students During the Early Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Longitudinal Smartphone and Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

BACKGROUND: The vast majority of people worldwide have been impacted by coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In addition to the millions of individuals who have been infected with the disease, billions of individuals have been asked or required by local and national governments to change their behavioral patterns. Previous research on epidemics or traumatic events suggests that this can lead to profound behavioral and mental health changes; however, researchers are rarely able to track these changes with frequent, near-real-time sampling or compare their findings to previous years of data for the same individuals. OBJECTIVE: By combining mobile phone sensing and self-reported mental health data among college students who have been participating in a longitudinal study for the past 2 years, we sought to answer two overarching questions. First, have the behaviors and mental health of the participants changed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic compared to previous time periods? Second, are these behavior and mental health changes associated with the relative news coverage of COVID-19 in the US media? METHODS: Behaviors such as the number of locations visited, distance traveled, duration of phone usage, number of phone unlocks, sleep duration, and sedentary time were measured using the StudentLife smartphone sensing app. Depression and anxiety were assessed using weekly self-reported ecological momentary assessments of the Patient Health Questionnaire-4. The participants were 217 undergraduate students, with 178 (82.0%) students providing data during the Winter 2020 term. Differences in behaviors and self-reported mental health collected during the Winter 2020 term compared to previous terms in the same cohort were modeled using mixed linear models. RESULTS: During the first academic term impacted by COVID-19 (Winter 2020), individuals were more sedentary and reported increased anxiety and depression symptoms (P<.001) relative to previous academic terms and subsequent academic breaks. Interactions between the Winter 2020 term and the week of the academic term (linear and quadratic) were significant. In a mixed linear model, phone usage, number of locations visited, and week of the term were strongly associated with increased amount of COVID-19-related news. When mental health metrics (eg, depression and anxiety) were added to the previous measures (week of term, number of locations visited, and phone usage), both anxiety (P<.001) and depression (P=.03) were significantly associated with COVID-19-related news. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with prior academic terms, individuals in the Winter 2020 term were more sedentary, anxious, and depressed. A wide variety of behaviors, including increased phone usage, decreased physical activity, and fewer locations visited, were associated with fluctuations in COVID-19 news reporting. While this large-scale shift in mental health and behavior is unsurprising, its characterization is particularly important to help guide the development of methods to reduce the impact of future catastrophic events on the mental health of the population.